New IRS Migration Data Shows No Evidence of Surtax-Driven Outmigration

The Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center (MassBudget) finds no indication that Massachusetts Fair Share Amendment (FSA) surtax is driving households out of the state, according to newly available IRS migration data. Instead, the data, which covers state and county migration for roughly calendar year 2022 point to broader affordability challenges as the primary factor influencing household movement.

“This latest IRS data reinforces what we have been saying: the Fair Share surtax is not prompting higher-income households to leave Massachusetts ,” said Viviana Abreu-Hernández, President of MassBudget. “In fact, the highest income households in the state – those with incomes above $200,000 – saw a decrease in net outmigration compared to the previous year.” The outmigration rate was 0.97 percent for these households in 2022 compared to 1.15 percent in 2021, demonstrating that the surtax is not having the impact some detractors of the Fair Share had predicted.

Overall, net household departures declined significantly relative to the previous year. While there were some 26,000 net households departing in 2021, that number fell to approximately 16,500 households in the new 2022 data. Approximately 9 out of 10 households leaving Massachusetts in 2022 reported incomes below $200,000. It suggests that other pressures—not tax policy—are the dominant factor influencing migration patterns.

“The data show that the households leaving the state are least likely to be subject to the surtax,” said Abreu-Hernández “That tells us something important: the lack of affordability of housing, education, transportation, childcare, and utilities, for example, are the real challenges we need to address.”

MassBudget emphasizes that investments funded by the Fair Share Amendment are critical to improving affordability and strengthening the state’s long-term economic competitiveness.

“The Fair Share surtax gives Massachusetts the tools to invest in what residents need most,” said MassBudget’s President. “By making strategic investments in education and transportation, we can address many of the underlying affordability challenges and ensure our state remains a place where people of all incomes can thrive.”

The most recent data relevant to the surtax was certified by the Comptrollerlast month. At the end of January 2026, Fair Share revenue collections were approximately $200 million ahead of this time the previous year. This shows most conclusively that the people with very high incomes continue contributing revenue at rising rates based on their residence in Massachusetts.

MassBudget will continue to analyze this data and are available to speak on it.