FOR RELEASE: March 18, 2026, 10 am
CONTACT: Robin Smyton, Assistant Director, Media Relations
robin.smyton@tufts.edu | 617-627-5392
A report released today by the Center for State Policy Analysis (cSPA) at Tufts University's Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life estimates the cost and potential impacts of a proposed 2026 state ballot question that would gradually reduce the income tax rate from 5 percent to 4 percent.
"State tax collections would fall dramatically under this proposal," said Evan Horowitz, executive director of cSPA. "And while households all around the state would benefit from lower tax bills, there will be unpredictable but unavoidable cuts to core public programs."
Key findings of the report include:
- Households would have more money to spend and save, with the median household tax bill shrinking by around $1,250 each year.
- Income tax collections would fall by nearly 20 percent and total state tax collections by roughly 10 percent, or $5.1 billion per year. A cut of this size would more than offset the revenue gains from the 2022 millionaires tax.
- Taxpayers across the income spectrum would see relatively similar benefits, with most households keeping an additional 1 percent of their income.
- This distribution of benefits looks quite different in dollar terms, with the highest-earning households receiving a tax cut roughly 30 times as large as the median household.
- The tax cut would be phased in over three years, beginning January 1, 2027. This creates a serious planning problem for lawmakers, who are already building next year's budget and cannot know whether revenues will suddenly drop.
- Because the tax cut is relatively small compared to household incomes, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on private spending and the overall state economy.
This report also includes fuller information about how the state income tax works, who pays it, and the exact changes involved in the proposed ballot question.
READ THE FULL REPORT
cSPA provides expert, nonpartisan analysis of legislative proposals and ballot questions in Massachusetts. It is based at Tufts University and supported by Tisch College along with a diverse group of funding sources from across the political spectrum.
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