Press Release: 8/27/2025
Politics in the Age of Trump, Labor Day Overview
August 27, 2025
A majority of the country disapproves of the job Donald Trump is doing. He has one of the
lowest job approvals of any president at this point in his term, and he gets even lower marks on
his handling of most major issues, including his management of inflation and the economy.
The fact that Trump has been able to maintain a job approval in the mid-40’s is a testament to
his enduring appeal with Republican base voters. Democrats continue to overwhelmingly
oppose his presidency, while, since the election, his support with independent voters has
cratered.
But his Republican support will be challenged in the coming months. The underlying data
suggests that the economy could further deteriorate as the country begins to more fully feel the
impact of his policies.
This would all suggest that the Democrats are in a strong position to make significant gains in
next year’s midterm elections and take back at least one branch of Congress.
Yet while the Democrats may do well, it is unlikely that they will have anywhere near the level of
success that the out-of-power party has had in previous midterm elections with such an
unpopular incumbent president.
The reason for this has less to do with the Democrats’ historically low approval rating than with a
political realignment that began forming long before Donald Trump ever ran for president.
We may be living in the Age of Trump, but the President should be viewed as the symptom, not
the cause of these structural changes in American politics. And at least for now, Trump and his
party are the beneficiaries of this political realignment.
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY (Slides 3-12)
We are continuing to go through a period of turmoil both at home and abroad, which is reflected
in a general unease. Most Americans continue to believe that the country is headed in the
wrong direction, a consensus that now dates back over 20 years.
We are entering a pivotable period of Trump’s presidency, with a possible government shutdown
less than a month away. In the remainder of the year, we will get a clearer sense of the impact
of Trump’s tariffs as well as the direction of the Federal Reserve after the selection of a new
chairman. In addition, the upcoming holiday season will give us a true reading on the state of
the U.S. economy. We should also have more clarity about the prospects for ending the war in
Ukraine as well as the conflict in the Middle East.
Regardless of the outcomes of all of these pending issues, we should fully expect that,
throughout Trump’s presidency, we will continue to live in a time of political, economic and
geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite the change in government, Americans remain deeply pessimistic about the economy. A
recent CNBC poll found that two-thirds of Americans rate conditions poorly, and nearly half
believe that the economy will get worse over the next year. The University of Michigan’s latest
economic survey reinforces this trend, showing consumer sentiment down over 12 points since
President Trump took office, with a growing expectation that inflation and unemployment will
both rise over the next year.
THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY (Slides 13-20)
Historically, a president’s job approval at this stage of their first year generally sets the trajectory
for the remainder of their term. In Trump’s case, approval ratings have shown far less fluctuation
than those of his predecessors, reflecting the deeply entrenched views Americans hold about
him. Trump retains overwhelming support from Republicans, with Democrats unified in their
opposition. As a result, a majority of voters are unlikely to significantly shift their opinions,
meaning that Trump’s approval rating will likely remain within the 40% to 48% range that has
defined both of his presidencies.
In the New York Times daily average of polls, Trump’s current 44% job approval is in the middle
of that range. This is actually quite impressive given the lack of support that the country has for
his handling of most issues. An analysis of recent polling averages by Nate Silver shows him at
-12.8 points on his handling of the economy,
-25.5 on managing inflation ,
-15.6 on trade and
-4.6 on immigration.
Polling has also consistently shown that a majority of Americans do not approve of Trump and
the Big Beautiful Bill recently passed by the Republicans. In a recent CNN poll, 61% oppose the
legislation, with over half believing it will hurt the economy.
If Trump were to move out of his current range of support, it is far more likely that his job
approval would drop below 40% rather than rise to the point that a majority of the country
supports his presidency.
HOW A REALIGNMENT IN AMERICAN POLITICS HAS IMPACTED OUR ELECTIONS (Slide
#22)
Going back to the 1950s, the job approval of the President was the single best predictor of the
outcome of midterm elections.
However, the singular importance of the president’s job approval has been diminished due to a
political realignment by level of education, the new fault line in American politics. More than a President’s job approval or the candidates on the ballot, the breakdown by education level of the
electorate is what matters in determining the outcome of American elections.
Since the 1990s, the Democrats have suffered a steady erosion of support from working-class
and rural voters and have become increasingly reliant on college graduates to win elections.
This is not exactly a winning formula, since almost 60% of eligible voters in the country do not
have a four-year college degree.
Over half of the members in the current Senate Democratic caucus come from the 12 states
with the highest levels of four-year college degrees. In the House, two-thirds of the Democratic
members come from the 100 districts with the highest levels of education.
The long term consequences for the Democrats could be even dire in future presidential
elections. Following the 2032 reapportionment, there could be a shift of as many as a net 20
electoral college votes to the Republicans due to population shifts towards the rapidly growing
southern and western red states.
This trend began forming in the early 1990s, accelerated during Obama’s presidency and
became the dominant political reality with Trump’s victory in 2016.
In the 1992 Presidential campaign. Ross Perot, fueled by support from working class voters,
received the most votes (19%) for a third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912.
During his presidency, Bill Clinton was able to forestall further erosion, but in the 2000 election,
six reliably Democratic states with a disproportionate share of rural and non-college voters –
Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia – became base states
for the Republican Party.
The number of competitive states continued to decline. The Republicans solidified their hold on
Iowa and Ohio while the Democrats became increasingly dominant in Colorado and Virginia.
The tipping point on education levels driving our politics occurred during Obama’s presidency. At
the beginning of his first term the Democrats had 60 members in the Senate. Since then they
have lost 18 seats in states where less than 35% of the population (all below the national
average) have a four-year college degree.
Trump’s victory in 2016 completed this political realignment when he carried three industrial
midwestern states that had voted for the Democrats in the six previous presidential elections.
He also carried 206 largely working class counties that had voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012
(Trump held on to 197 of these areas in 2024).
By the 2022 midterm elections, the education level of voters in races surpassed the president’s
job approval in importance in determining the results. Despite Biden’s 40% job approval, the Democrats increased their majority in the Senate and kept their House losses to single digits
while picking up a net of two governors, thanks to a disproportionate turnout by
college-educated voters.
In the 2024 election, education levels transcended ethnicity and race for the first time when
Trump made huge gains with working-class voters from all backgrounds.
THE 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS (Slides 21-39)
Based on historical voting trends, the Democrats would appear poised to enjoy great success in
the upcoming elections.
Since the Civil War, the president’s party has gained seats only four times in the House in
midterm elections. On average it has lost 26 seats in the House and four in the Senate.
Trump currently has the same 44% job approval that Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats
lost 53 House districts and the speakership for the first time since 1952; they also lost eight
Senate seats and 10 governorships. In 2010, when Obama had a 45% approval rating, the
Democrats suffered even greater losses: 63 seats in the House, seven in the Senate and six
governorships.
There are other positive signs for the Democrats as well.
In an August Gallup poll, the Democrats enjoyed a three-point edge over the Republicans in
party self-identification. This is despite a record low 33% favorability in the most recent Wall
Street Journal poll. And a CNN survey found a 22-point Democratic advantage in voter
motivation to turn out.
Despite these challenges, the Republicans are far more insulated from an election catastrophe
than they would have been in the past.
Whereas in the past all politics was local, now all politics is national. Forty-four states have
voted for the same party in the last three presidential elections. In the current Congress, 419
members of the House and 90 Senators are from the same party as the presidential candidate
who carried their state in 2024. In 38 states (23R/15D), one party has control over the
governor's office and both chambers of the legislature.
As a result of these trends, over 80% of the Senate and House races are no longer considered
competitive.
All which narrows the opportunity for the Democrats to fully benefit politically even if support for
Trump and the Republicans implodes in the run-up to the midterm elections.
In the Senate, the Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats to take control. Of the 35 seats
up next year, the Republicans are defending 22 and the Democrats only 13.
However, due to the political realignment, only 6 seats are considered competitive, and the
Democrats are defending half of them. To the Democrats’ credit, they have been successful in
recruiting top candidates in North Carolina and Ohio. The Republicans, on the other hand, have
done a poor job of candidate-recruitment in Georgia, Minnesota and New Hampshire and have
a timebomb on their hands in Texas if Attorney General Ken Paxson is their nominee there.
The Democrats face the same challenge in the House that they do in the Senate. There are just
40 seats out of the 435 that are competitive with only 18 districts considered toss-ups. The
Democrats are defending 22 of these seats, 13 of which Trump won in 2024. In contrast, the
Republicans only have three members in districts carried by Harris.
Compounding the challenge for the Democrats is the drive underway by the Republicans for
mid-decade redistricting in several of the states that they control, which could net them 5-10
additional seats. Last week they were able to successfully redraw the Congressional district
lines in Texas, which could net them as many as five seats. Similar redistricting efforts are also
underway in Republican-controlled Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio. The Democrats are
likely limited to a possible redistricting in California to offset some of these additional losses.
Lastly, elections have consequences, and the Republicans will be able to build on their recent
successes to further tilt the playing field in their favor next year.
They have been able to make massive gains in voter registration, which tends to be a leading
indicator of the direction of future voting. In the 30 states that track voter registration by political
party, the Democrats have lost ground in every single one since the 2020 election. That has
resulted in a 4.5 million new voter-registration advantage for the Republicans.
Fundraising, which is a lagging political indicator, with money tending to flow to the party that
had won previous elections, will also give the Republicans a substantial advantage next year.
Trump’s political operation claims that they have $1.4 billion dollars in commitments to fund the
2026 midterm elections. In the June 30th fundraising filing, Trump’s fundraising committees and
the RNC had $350 million in cash on hand. By contrast, the DNC had $15 million dollars in the
bank at the end of June.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The battle for control of Congress in next year's midterm elections is all about the final two years
of Trump’s Presidency. Will he continue to have unfettered power over a Republican Congress
or will there be some kind of check on Trump, with the Democrats in control of at least one
branch?
The outcome will be determined by a historically low number of competitive Senate and House
races.
The results will likely come down to whether the Republicans can overcome what is likely to be
an increasingly negative political environment, with a majority of the country continuing to
disapprove of the Trump presidency.
Part of the Republican strategy to hold the House, which appears to be working, is to bend the
political system to their advantage through mid-decade redistricting.
The other part will be to focus on turning out their MAGA base rather than focusing on swing
voters. As a candidate or as president, Trump has never veered off of this focus on his base,
and he appears, on a daily basis, to be doubling down on this approach.
Polling does show that hard-core members of MAGA have increasingly become high propensity
voters. This strategy however will remain challenging since Trump’s unique appeal has not
proven to be easily transferable. Since he became president in 2017, the Republicans have
struggled in elections when Trump is not on the ballot.
For the Democrats, it's all about consolidating their base which has atrophied since they lost
the 2024 elections. Luckily for them – when it comes to the midterms, anyway – their strongest
supporters are college graduates, who are most likely to vote in off-year elections.
Which leads to a final point. The one thing that is clear is that the results in next year's midterms
will tell us very little about the 2028 presidential election. That election will be a referendum on
America’s future as we finally move away from Politics in the Age of Trump.