“When a presidential candidate flips a state, their party almost always wins the concurrent Senate race. For example, Democrats won all Senate races in states that Biden flipped blue in 2020. Republicans did the same in 2016. In fact, between 2004 and 2020 such split outcomes have happened just twice—Democrat Joe Donnelly’s 2012 win in Indiana and Republican Judd Gregg’s 2004 victory in New Hampshire. Had the GOP conformed with precedent this year—an entirely reasonable outcome given Trump’s strong performance—they’d start the next Congress with 57 Senate seats. Not to mention the handful of very winnable seats that Republicans missed two years ago! Imagine stronger candidates in place of Blake Masters, Dr. Oz, and Herschel Walker—all of a sudden Democrats are down to 40 seats. So, to Democrats desperate for a piece of good news: Entering the 2026 cycle with 47 Senate seats is a small miracle.”