“"In general, the Silver Bulletin forecast has tracked prediction markets extremely closely — but there’s more of a divergence now. Harris rose again in our forecast today: in the span of a week, she’s gone from a 37 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to a 53 percent chance. The race is still a toss-up for all intents and purposes, but if you’re sweating the details, you’d rather have the 53 percent side of a bet than the 47 percent half. At Polymarket, however, the odds are roughly the reverse of this, with Trump at 54 percent and Harris at 44 (and 2 percent for Michelle Obama for some reason). That may be because of economic news: Friday brought a disappointing jobs report, and the S&P 500 was off by 3 percent on Monday, so pour yourself a glass of something strong before you check your 401K. Prediction market traders have heavy adjacency to financial markets, so perhaps it’s not surprising that they’re sensitive to this stuff.:”